Cost Forecasting

The Problem with Surprise Expenses

Homeownership comes with big, unpredictable expenses:

• Your furnace dies in January: $5,000
• Water heater starts leaking: $1,500
• Refrigerator stops cooling: $2,000

These expenses feel random, but they're not. Every appliance has an expected lifespan, and with good data, you can predict roughly when replacements will be needed.

That's what Cost Forecasting does.

How Cost Forecasting Works

HomeLifeSpan analyzes your appliances and generates year-by-year predictions:

1. Age Analysis — How old is each appliance?
2. Lifespan Data — What's the typical lifespan for this type?
3. Replacement Timing — When is replacement most likely?
4. Cost Estimation — What will replacement cost at that time?

The result: A timeline showing expected expenses for the next 1, 5, or 10+ years.

Viewing Your Forecast

Dashboard Summary

Your dashboard shows:

• Upcoming Year Costs — What you might spend in the next 12 months
• 5-Year Outlook — Total predicted costs over the next 5 years
• High-Cost Items — The most expensive upcoming replacements

Detailed Forecast View

For a complete breakdown:

1. Go to Dashboard or Cost Forecast (depending on your plan)
2. See the year-by-year breakdown
3. Click on any year to see which appliances contribute
4. View individual appliance replacement estimates

Understanding the Forecast

Year-by-Year Breakdown

| Year | Predicted Cost | Items | |------|----------------|-------| | 2026 | $2,500 | Water heater, Garbage disposal | | 2027 | $800 | Microwave | | 2028 | $6,500 | HVAC system | | 2029 | $2,200 | Refrigerator | | 2030 | $1,100 | Washer |

Reading the Chart

The forecast visualization shows:

• Bar height — Total predicted cost for that year
• Color coding — Different appliance categories
• Hover details — Specific appliances contributing to that year

What Affects Forecast Accuracy

Better Data = Better Forecasts

The forecast is only as good as your data:

| Data Quality | Forecast Accuracy | |--------------|-------------------| | Exact purchase dates | Most accurate | | Approximate dates ("about 5 years ago") | Good accuracy | | No dates (uses category averages) | Rough estimate |

Factors Not Included

Cost forecasting can't predict:

• Quality variations — A premium brand may last longer
• Usage patterns — Heavy use shortens lifespan
• Maintenance impact — Well-maintained items last longer
• Random failures — Sometimes things just break early

Using Forecasts for Planning

Annual Budget Planning

Use your 1-year forecast to set aside funds:

1. Check your upcoming year's predicted costs
2. Divide by 12 for monthly savings target
3. Build an appliance replacement fund

Home Purchase Decisions

Buying a house? Run the appliances through HomeLifeSpan:

• Get an estimate of upcoming replacement costs
• Factor this into your negotiation or budget
• Know what you're getting into before you buy

Renovation Planning

Planning a kitchen remodel in 3 years? Check what else might need replacement around that time. It often makes sense to bundle projects.

For Landlords: Portfolio Forecasting

If you manage multiple properties, portfolio forecasting shows:

• Total CapEx by year across all properties
• Per-property breakdown for budgeting
• Category analysis — Are all your water heaters aging at once?
• Cash flow planning for rental property budgets

This is invaluable for setting appropriate reserves and planning major capital expenditure years.

Updating Your Forecast

Your forecast automatically updates when you:

• Add new appliances — New items join the forecast
• Update purchase dates — More accurate timing predictions
• Mark items as replaced — Resets that item's timeline
• Add purchase prices — Better cost estimates

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